How to test your assumptions

Dear WW: My company requires that each salesperson develop projections for the coming year. I have a new boss and she ripped my forecast saying my assumptions were too rosy. But I based them on sales from last year, so they should be accurate. IT’S SAFE TO ASSUME I’VE GOT A PROBLEM

Dear Safe,

If you went sailing you would never assume the wind, weather, tides and traffic would be the same as they were on a prior year’s sail. Yet in business we often leap to the conclusion that next year’s conditions will be a replay of last year’s. Can you say “Exxon Valdez”?
Unfortunately, few things are as dangerous to a business as faulty assumptions-because they are to a business what a compass is to sailors. They orient you to your ultimate port-o’-call as well as through the shifting waters you navigate daily. And assumptions are especially difficult because, for most of us, they are so hard to get a handle on.

It sounds like your boss has fired a shot across your bow. You should grab this chance to re-evaluate the seaworthiness of your thinking. The following questions may help you do so. They’ve been adapted from Asking the Right Questions by Page & Seldon (Prentice Hall, 1994).

Just what are your assumptions? Welcome to the business version of “It’s a Wonderful Life.” For the next several hours you need to examine your company and marketplace from the outside. You need to look at everything that has an impact on your sales: your customers, your competitors, your potential competitors, the economy . . . Even look at your co-workers because they can influence how well your company delivers on your promises. Write down everything you know about those elements that can affect your sales.

When was the last time you tested your assumptions? Now that you’ve ballparked your assumptions, it’s time to put them to the test. Seek external proof (that is, from a source outside your brain) that what you believe is true. Use the library, trade journals, market research, etc. to correct or fine tune your thinking. One manager I know tried to visit a different competitor every week. Have you made a weekly commitment to stay on top of your assumptions?

Consider the consequences: what if you’re wrong? And if you’re wrong, would you suffer a surface wound or a fatal blow? Microsoft acknowledged that it had mistakenly assumed that people would want to collect computer CD’s just as they do music CD’s. Now they realize that people are more interested in surfing the endless Internet than owning a finite amount of content. The company shifted direction and redoubled its commitment to the Net. A deep-pocketed behemoth like Microsoft can survive this kind of mis-assumption. Can you?

And since we’re on the subject of assumptions, let me point out one more. Never assume you know what your boss is talking about. Pin her down. Find out her specific concerns. It’s better to look dumb momentarily as you learn to be smart than to risk running into that same reef over and over again. Happy sailing!

Bob Rosner is a best-selling author, speaker and internationally syndicated columnist. Sherrie Campbell is a relationship and business professional, having applied her counseling background in a variety of challenging organizational settings. They’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic, especially if you have better ideas than they do. Also check out their complete column archive at workmash.org, “The Boss’s Survival Guide” and “Gray Matters: The workplace survival guide.” Send your questions or comments to bob@workmash.org.